Despite public market chaos, late-stage private markets are holding steady—with AI, M&A, and disciplined secondary activity driving the charge.
When public markets panic, private markets often whisper back with quiet confidence.
Forge’s Q2 2025 Investment Outlook makes one thing clear: the turbulence of tariffs, tech selloffs, and recession whispers has done little to shake the foundation of the private market.
In fact, the opposite may be happening.
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🔍 Key Takeaways from the Report
1. AI is the engine—and it’s not slowing down.
The private market’s strongest tailwind continues to be the AI sector. From OpenAI’s $40B raise to Anthropic’s $3.5B infusion, the private capital ecosystem is leaning heavily into intelligent infrastructure. Many of these companies remain private by design, with no plans to go public anytime soon.
“AI continues to be a big performance driver... most not indicating a desire to be public soon.”
2. IPOs show flickers of life—until tariffs hit.
Q1 started with hope: a wave of S-1 filings and CoreWeave’s debut IPO hinted at a thaw in public offerings. But the April 2nd tariff announcement cut that momentum short, forcing a number of marquee companies—Klarna, Chime, StubHub—to hit pause on their IPO plans.
3. M&A is the new IPO.
With uncertainty clouding the public route, M&A has taken the lead as the preferred exit strategy. Big-ticket deals like Google’s $32B return to Wiz and ServiceNow’s $2.85B acquisition of Moveworks signal confidence in strategic exits—especially for companies in the AI and SaaS trenches.
“M&A appears to be a preferred alternative to IPOs for late-stage private companies.”
4. Primary market funding stays hot.
Q1 saw over $60B raised across 149 late-stage rounds, continuing a six-quarter streak of steady valuation step-ups. New unicorns emerged across a diverse range of sectors—not just AI—including business ops and healthcare.
5. Secondary market signals recovery.
After a rocky few years, secondary market pricing is stabilizing. Discounts are narrowing, spreads are tightening (median bid/ask now just 8%), and median trade prices are returning toward parity for the first time since 2022.
📈 The Bigger Picture
Forge’s private market indices smoked their public counterparts in Q1:
And companies like Figure AI (+1,140%) and PsiQuantum (+177%) are showing that private capital still backs bold bets—with strong conviction.
🧠 What This Means for Investors
Private markets aren’t immune to macro shifts—but they are structurally different. They don’t price minute-to-minute, they don’t overreact to headlines, and they often reward patience and sector-specific conviction.
For allocators, this report is a reminder that private market resilience isn’t a myth—it’s math, capital discipline, and a touch of long-term thinking.
Sources: Forge Q2 2025 Investment Outlook
