Despite public market chaos, late-stage private markets are holding steady—with AI, M&A, and disciplined secondary activity driving the charge.
When public markets panic, private markets often whisper back with quiet confidence.
Forge’s Q2 2025 Investment Outlook makes one thing clear: the turbulence of tariffs, tech selloffs, and recession whispers has done little to shake the foundation of the private market.
In fact, the opposite may be happening.
The private market’s strongest tailwind continues to be the AI sector. From OpenAI’s $40B raise to Anthropic’s $3.5B infusion, the private capital ecosystem is leaning heavily into intelligent infrastructure. Many of these companies remain private by design, with no plans to go public anytime soon.
“AI continues to be a big performance driver... most not indicating a desire to be public soon.”
Q1 started with hope: a wave of S-1 filings and CoreWeave’s debut IPO hinted at a thaw in public offerings. But the April 2nd tariff announcement cut that momentum short, forcing a number of marquee companies—Klarna, Chime, StubHub—to hit pause on their IPO plans.
With uncertainty clouding the public route, M&A has taken the lead as the preferred exit strategy. Big-ticket deals like Google’s $32B return to Wiz and ServiceNow’s $2.85B acquisition of Moveworks signal confidence in strategic exits—especially for companies in the AI and SaaS trenches.
“M&A appears to be a preferred alternative to IPOs for late-stage private companies.”
Q1 saw over $60B raised across 149 late-stage rounds, continuing a six-quarter streak of steady valuation step-ups. New unicorns emerged across a diverse range of sectors—not just AI—including business ops and healthcare.
After a rocky few years, secondary market pricing is stabilizing. Discounts are narrowing, spreads are tightening (median bid/ask now just 8%), and median trade prices are returning toward parity for the first time since 2022.
Forge’s private market indices smoked their public counterparts in Q1:
Forge Private Market Index: +37.1%
SPY ETF: –4.6%
IPO ETF: –13.8%
And companies like Figure AI (+1,140%) and PsiQuantum (+177%) are showing that private capital still backs bold bets—with strong conviction.
Private markets aren’t immune to macro shifts—but they are structurally different. They don’t price minute-to-minute, they don’t overreact to headlines, and they often reward patience and sector-specific conviction.
For allocators, this report is a reminder that private market resilience isn’t a myth—it’s math, capital discipline, and a touch of long-term thinking.
Sources: Forge Q2 2025 Investment Outlook